Friday, July 21, 2017

Plan beats no plan: Responding to a pitch of 3% GDP growth

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President Trump’s promise that the U.S. economy could reach 3 percent GDP growth if we adopted his policies has prompted many economists to respond with a reality check that 3 percent GDP growth is no longer achievable
This response may or may not be correct economically, but I think it’s also worth acknowledging that, politically, it’s a loser. I was struck by this after searching for responses to a recent piece by noted economists (and conservatives) John Cogan, Glenn Hubbard, John Taylor and Kevin Warsh. In an editorial published by the Hoover Institution, they wrote:
“The policy changes of the kind proposed by the Congress and the Administration, if enacted, would significantly improve the economy’s growth prospects … Could implementation of such a comprehensive economic plan raise the economic growth rate to 3 percent? We believe it can.”
Some in the media were quick to point out that Hubbard, Taylor, and Warsh are all under consideration to replace Janet Yellen as Fed Chair. Economists responded by saying, again, that 3% is a pipe dream.
Instead we need substantive discussion of what can generate faster economic growth. Rather than debating whether the American economy is stuck in a new-normal of 2% growth, we need to promote ideas that will increase economic growth and real wages for working families. After all, voters don’t care about GDP; they want good jobs, higher wages, and economic security. In the end, which politician are voters going to like more? A candidate who says we can do better? Or one who says we cannot, no matter what we do?
So what will improve economic growth? There are three I’s that can do this: immigration, infrastructure, and investment.  However, their ability to bring us up to 3% growth is both doubtful and irrelevant.
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